Hawaii Forex Class - "Managing the Trade"

Given our experience where training someone in the financial markets requires a considerable amount of time and dedication on part of both the instructor / traders conducting the sessions not to mention the amount of information overload for the attendee.

What typically happens after attending a full day workshop is that attendees are either overloaded with information that could possibly hurt them as they eagerly over-leverage their accounts with new trading techniques or they're still confused at what to do next.

Realizing this, our team has decided to take a different road that makes a lot more sense in allowing a person to absorb information at a pace that best suits them. The format is "online", small groups, customized and spread over a course of time that suits the participant's schedule and frame of mind.

More information can be found on our website: www.hawaiiforex.com

What's up with the Yen?

There might be a nice opportunity brewing ahead for the USD.JPY pair given the following weekly chart.

Our main forum covers intraday opportunties based on the 3 drives pattern to the left on the fall to a possible major support "zone".

AUD.USD - Continued Trade

As of this posting, the pair has rebounded over 100 pips as illustrated on the 30 min chart here.

Longer term traders could lock in profits under a trailing stop for a further push up.

Advanced Fibonacci techniques to pinpoint entry, stop and profit targets are well explained in books by Joe DiNapoli.

One thing for certain given our trade here is where one certainly would not want to turn a profitable trade into a loss. So, the suggestion here is to either manage the trade properly by either taking profits and look for your next opportunity for re-entry or employ a trailing stop.

AUD.USD - Intraday

There's a lot more that goes into intraday trading than what I'm about to show here but thought it might be helpful giving part of an analysis we typically do in our trading sessions and bulletins.

Without a complete understanding of risk management and other parts of a well formulated trading plan, inexperienced traders will fall into more harm to their account than good.

Below is a brief illustration where as of this posting there have been a few intraday opportunities with the AUD.USD pair we started this Blog with. Please note again that this is only part of an analysis and posted here just as an example to spur thoughts.

The diagram illustrates a few concepts being a directional pattern based trade in line with the higher daily trend to pinpoint entry and stop placement using advanced Fibonacci analysis within DiNapoli levels.

AUD.USD - Continued Momentum

As a follow up to our prior post, price has moved down to the level of "K" confluence as a defined DiNapoli level given our trading strategy.

Price dropped earlier to a low of 0.9274 before rebounding and resuming the overall trend in light of the USD against other currencies.

There were a few opportunities earlier today for intraday profit taking based on pattern trading this pair shown in our secured forums.

Managed Accounts

With the majority of people in what's consider the "retail" area of Forex trading lacking the time and understanding of trading successfully in the financial markets, a professionally managed account is a viable avenue to explore.

Some of the areas to investigate on the people managing the account:

- Are they registered under some type of regulating body (NFA - National Futures Assn)?

- What is the maximum "draw down" historically (level your account falls) per month or how much exposure at any given time in the trade?

- What is their overall strategy and how it applies relative to today and potential economic conditions?

- Who is auditing their financials and in what fashion are these being reported?

There are managed accounts with mechanical as well as discretionary trading methodologies where Hawaii Forex provides access to each. For more information, please contact admin@hawaiiforex.com

AUD.USD - Pullback

There should be some nice trading activity given the pullback to a firm support level around 0.9285 - 95 given 2 specific strategies we observe in our forums.

On one side, given the red DiNapoli displaced moving average, is a specific type of directional strategy as this correlates near to the support level.

On a different note, given thrust and the strong uptrend of this pair, it's also nearing the 10 period exponential moving average. All major moving averages, 10, 20, 50, 200 periods lie in line supporting the strong uptrend.

The indicator below is the DiNapoli MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator also illustrating the strong uptrend push.

One might pin point an entry with a bias to a long position dropping to a shorter intraday time frame correlating this to a directional pattern to support the reasoning for entry and risk management.

These are issues we cover "live" in the community eChat room and advanced board postings given the myriad of details and multiple play options that could be done here.

Trade Review 03.01.2008

To help our trading community we do have a basic and advanced forum that reviews trades along with potential opportunities based on Fibonacci patterns and strategies from traders.

Below is a sample of a Trade Review which is really designed to be lessons that review past opportunities to help assess "what to do" in possible recurring situations. While nothing is a concrete certainty, a lot of the patterns we look at have been recorded as time tested material in books that date back to the start of technical analysis. More important is being able to confidently play these with proper risk management.

With regard to a given analysis that was posted on our bulletin earlier today:

Here's my $0.02 thought and I'm sure some of the experts may have some helpful thoughts to add.

When I'm looking at an ABC --- D at where to take, one thing I began looking at is the BC pullback to determine how far it's pulled back before marching on to D. If I see a shallow retracement to a 38.2 node, I'm more biased to an OP or XOP move as illustrated below.

What "magic system" ?

I found it interesting to see how many people are willing to spend thousands on infomercial systems given the hope and promise without knowing a thing about how it works. When we first started our business, we had a lot of people confusing us with a green and red arrow system that supposedly told them when to buy / sell in the markets with unprecedented certainty.

As far as I know, there isn't a 'magic' system that hits 100% accuracy on trading that's guaranteed to automatically grow your account. Don't get me wrong as I do come across a lot of good mechanical systems with an impressive track record. A thing that stuck with me from a very strong trader is to use them... while they work! As conditions will change and a system isn't necessarily wired to take every possible setup available. You as the owner should still understand how much the system is risking and take responsibility for money management.

Aside from finding a system to work with, it always comes down to managing risk.

Lastly, there are more than a handful of mechanical systems available that don't cost a pretty penny as FCMs and IBs typically have these readily available if you ask. More than likely, they won't have flashy green & red arrows though.

Personally, I'm a bit more comfortable with my own discretionary style.